AP - Oded Balilty
Jake, Senior Correspondent of mentalblog.com Jerusalem Bureau reports. Some general pointers on the upcoming Israeli elections:
Last week, Uzi Dayan, who is heading a Quality in Government and anti-corruption platform, noted that 30% of the voters hadn't yet decided how to vote. From what I hear, this sounds about right. This is a very large bloc and can still swing the vote in any direction. Many people who haven't decided will probably decide at the last moment and will probably go with what they have traditionally chosen. But late-breaking news could changethis trend very significantly.
There is a strong repulsion among the public for the corruption that is widespread throughout politics here. Since the pollsters are already predicting the results with (false) confidence, many people feel that their vote will have no impact or that the system is corrupt anyways - and these people are not intending to vote. About a third of voters are not planning to vote. (I don't know what overlap there is with the 30% mentioned above.)
Among the pollsters, Sharon's Kadima party holds the lead. Some people are becoming disillusioned with Kadima and it's lack of direction; it has no central platform, it's nominal leader is still unconscious in hospital (and considered deeply corrupt), it's various members are running in different directions - and it also suffers from having Shimon Peres.
Likud is well behind. Some former Likud supporters have gone to Kadima (mostly the most corrupt Likudniks, who moved for promises of future rewards). Other former supporters are disillusioned with Likud's failure to stop the expulsion from Gaza and will vote for smaller right wing parties. Likud was also the representative and protector of the 'little man' and the poor. In the past few years of economic hardship in Israel, the poor have suffered, also losing out in cutbacks in government programs (while the rich have gotten richer.. much richer). Treasury Minister Netanyahu led fiscal policy through this period and is unpopular with many lower-income voters so this further erodes Likud's popularity.
I would describe Labor's Amir Peretz as unelectable. He has never been minister or even assistant minister of anything. Now he wants to be Prime Minister. Most of his experience has been in leading national strikes that have cost the economy billions over the years. The declarations by his supporters that he is not a Communist only serve to emphasize his radical left-wing ideologies. Worse yet, the Labor party in Israel has traditionally represented the interests of established money and industry and these voters cannot now pull themselves to vote for Peretz. His calls to increase the minimum wage and his career of industrial trouble-making terrify the business community.
As for the smaller parties, the anti-religion Shinui party has completely disintegrated. One former member is continuing with his own party. The other anti-religion party has as it's primary platform the destruction of the religious Sefardi party, Shas. With the other issues facing the country now (especially the rise of Hamastan just a few miles away), voters might choose other battles to wage now. Shas, for it's part, is now trying to woo the women's vote.
The National Religious Party, Mafdal, has lost a lot of support. Former supporters are upset about the expulsion from Gaza. Baruch Marzel is gaining support. He advocates using the same approach used in Gush Katif ("determination and sensitivity") for removing Arabs from Israel. The vast sums spent on the security wall and patrolling it could be spent paying off Arabs to move out of Israel. Just as Gush Katif residents were compensated monetarily to abandon their homes and towns and move across the border, the Arabs should be paid to do the same - and be forced to do so. Just as the Jews of Gaza were forced to leave. This is an increasingly compelling argument. He is likely to beat the threshold and get a seat in the next Knesset.
Watch Avigdor Liberman's Yisra'el Beiteinu party carefully. He is very well-spoken and represents some views that many hold. He has strong support from the Russian immigrants, is strongly against Arab settlement in Israel and also supports paying Arabs to leave the country. He is tipped to get quite a few seats. He may be a kingmaker in the next coalition.
There are other possibilities. It could be that Kadima will win but won't be able to form a coalition. Remember that there is a THREE-way split among major parties and Labor and Likud have both been hammering Kadima in the campaigning. There are already plans by right wing parties to combine together to oppose an Olmert govt; this could result in Netanyahu being asked to form a coalition or perhaps there might even be another election???
Overall, there's still plenty uncertainty. Even if Olmert wins, it is not at all clear (to me) what kind of government and opposition will form and how the country will be run in the next term.